Value Bluff

I played a real interesting hand the other night. I posted it on 2+2, a couple of days ago. I haven't revealed the results there, but I will here along with my thought process.

This happened at Oceans-11 on Saturday night in a short-handed 40/80 game. I think were 6-handed at the time. One of my poker friends, Joe, opens UTG +1, and it is folded around to me in the big blind. I have two black kings. Now Joe is a tough player, plays pretty tight, and is pretty foldy post flop. Against an aggro maniac, or someone who plays too loose, or can't read hands I would probably 3-bet this hand, but against Joe, deception here and being out of position, I decide to just flat call with a plan to check raise most flops.

Flop comes 753 all hearts. Now this is not a good board to check raise, since if he bets and I raise he will likely get away from all his marginal hands, along with his ace-highs. Letting him barrel off is better in this case. So I check he bets and I call.

Turn is a black 9. Again, if he doesn't have much, leading here is not a good proposition, plus the flop check/call, turn lead looks very weird and Joe will likely fold here if he doesn't have anything, but will call if he has a piece or a flush draw. That's really my only fear, is that he will check behind the turn and take a free river, but Joe is fairly aggressive and I would expect him to value bet any pair, plus his good ace-highs here. So I check with a plan of check raising if he bets. He dutifully bets, and I spring my check raise in, and now he 3-bets.

Ok, time to re-evaluate. What hands will he open with, bet the flop, and then 3-bet my turn check raise? Big pairs AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, sets 77, 99, flushes AhXh, KhQh. Would he 3-bet big pairs with a heart? AhAx, for sure, QhQx, JhJx, maybe but doubtful. AhKx, AhQx, very likely not, as I have already shown that I am pretty showdown bound at this point, and he would not want to charge himself to draw to the nut flush. So according to PokerStove, if I give him a 3-bet range on the turn of 99+, 77, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh, I have 44.918% equity in the pot and I am slightly behind, so I call, planning to check/call most rivers.

River is a very interesting card, the King of Hearts. That eliminates at least two of his possible holdings, AhKh and KhQh. That and I don't think that he 3-bets one card flush draws on the turn, unless it is specifically the AhAx, means that I should only be losing now to the nut flush that he flopped, which is very rare, less than 1% chance that happened.

So I make a very thin value bet, that also can look like a bluff. I expect to get raised by all flushes, and it has to be nut-flush from him to raise. A raise from him and my hand hits the muck. I don't think he can even raise the second nut flush with the Qh, since I could easily have the Ah in my hand. But the fact that there's a 4-card flush on board, and he knows that the last heart is a great bluff card, I can expect to get called very light. Checking and calling is a horrible option, in that he will check behind all the hands that I beat, and confidently value bet all of his flushes. The bet goes in way better by forcing him to the decision. In any case, he crying calls, I open my rivered set of kings, and he disgustingly mucks pocket 7's for flopped top-set. Clearly the river value bet was best, as there is no way he is betting the river with that hand and that board, since he does not want to get check raised on the river by me.